While watching on the TV screens the heartrending scenes of death and destruction caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and reading the news about the huge damage inflicted on Russian economy and the consequences on the Russian people due to the sanctions imposed by the USA and the European countries, one is reminded of the quote of Brock Chisholm, “No one wins a war. It is true, there are degrees of loss, but no one wins”. 

It is very unfortunate that political leaders like Vladimir Putin have not learned this simple lesson from the history of the world. What did Hitler gain after massacring about nine million people, including six million Jews? History teaches humanity that pride, arrogance and greed for power made some leaders blind and mad, and the whole world had to suffer the consequences of their crazy decisions. The present and future generations may count Russian President Vladimir Putin as one among them.

Any war results in death and destruction, and the loss in a war in the contemporary world is unimaginable because of the use of modern technology that has increased manifold the destructive power of warfare. According to Wikipedia, in the Second World War, an estimated 70 to 80 million people perished. This includes an estimated 50 to 56 million civilian and military fatalities and an estimated 19 to 28 million deaths due to war related disease and famine. Millions of people were rendered homeless. 

In Europe alone, there were an estimated 21,000,000 refugees, more than half of them were “displaced persons” (Britannica). The economic loss suffered by different countries is incalculable. Amnesia about the death and destruction caused by wars in the past could be one of the main reasons for the political leaders opting for war as a means of conflict resolution.

In an article published in scroll.in on 26th February, the acclaimed Indian historian Ramachandra Guha has succinctly explained that the previous misadventures by the US and the Soviet Union had caused enormous suffering and undermined the invading forces. He has given a brief description of the humiliating experiences of America in invading Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan and of Russia because of its unnecessary intervention in Afghanistan and its shameful withdrawal ten years later. 

“In each case, enough time had passed for amnesia to set in, for people (and leaders) to forget how badly the previous misadventure had ended, for a new generation to come of age which could be brainwashed into thinking that it was in their country’s national interest to go to war with another”, writes Guha. 

According to Guha, the invasion of Ukraine is prompted by the paranoid fear that the world does not hold Russia in high esteem any more, and that it needs to take decisive action to count once again as a great power. Hence the aggression of Ukraine by Russia is born out of the greed and perverse ambition of one man, Mr. Putin. 

The reasons given by Putin to invade Ukraine are only excuses. Putin has claimed Ukraine is an inalienable part of Russia.  “Ukraine is not just a neighbouring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space, he said. It is true that Ukraine was part of the former USSR and as a former Soviet republic Ukraine has deep social and cultural ties with Russia, and Russian is widely spoken there. But it is also a fact that like many other republics of the former Soviet Union, Ukraine became an independent sovereign country after the disintegration of the USSR in 1991. Ukraine is also recognized by the world nations and the international organizations as an independent sovereign nation. By the same logic of Putin, India can invade Pakistan or Bangladesh, claiming that they were part of India before 1947. If India does so, will the nations of the world justify India’s act? 

It is also reported that Russia is wary of Ukraine’s plan to join the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Thirteen East European countries that were part of the former Soviet Union joined NATO since 1993. Against this backdrop Russia has demanded that the West gives a legally binding guarantee that NATO will not hold any military activity in Eastern Europe and Ukraine. Putin also claims Ukraine is a puppet of the West and was never a proper state anyway. But he doesn’t care about the security concerns of Ukraine. 

At the time of the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, Ukraine was the third largest nuclear power in the world. Because of the pressure from the US and Russia, Ukraine had destroyed its nuclear weapons in 1994 and joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Ukraine has serious concerns about its security, and as a sovereign nation it has the right to join organizations that can ensure its security. Russia has no right to object to the decision of Ukraine to join NATO and invade it on the excuse of threat to Russia’s security.

The world today is entirely different from what it was at the end of the Second World War because of the globalized economy and the revolution in information and communication technology. In a globalized world, war in any part of the world affects the whole world negatively. For example, the crude oil price climbed past $ 100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 while European natural gas jumped as much as 62%. 

The pandemic has left the global economy with two key points of vulnerability -- high inflation and jittery financial markets. The impact of the war could easily worsen both. Indian share markets felt the shock on the day Putin announced the military operation in Ukraine, as the equity markets plunged around 3% on 24th February.

The fact that thousands of people in Russia have protested against the war with Ukraine shows that the Russian people are aware of the impact of war on them. According to Wikipedia, 1,47,000 Russians have signed a petition to impeach Putin. The sanctions imposed by the US and the European countries have started hitting the Russian economy heavily. On 28th February, the Russian ruble tanked 30 per cent versus the dollar in offshore trading.  

According to economic experts, Russian economy is going to be affected in five ways: “A sharp tanking of the Russian ruble, a looming fear of a run on its banks, a panic reaction by the Russian central bank to suspend the execution of all orders by foreigners to sell securities indefinitely starting February 28 morning, a looming shortage of most consumer goods that Moscow sources from the West, and a worsening of terms of trade on future imports”.

People all over the world, especially political leaders, can learn some lessons from this conflict. First of all, a functional democracy in which power shifts between different political parties or alliances is the best bet against war. Putin has been in power continuously for 23 years. “Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely”, said Lord Acton. Under his leadership Russia slid into a totalitarian state, although elections are held at regular intervals. There is no place for dissent, and any opposition to him is crushed. 
After establishing his dictatorship in Russia, Putin wants to expand his power to other countries. In the absence of an effective opposition within Russia there is no one to control his thirst for power. Those who speak about Congress-mukt (opposition mukt) Bharat in India have to learn from the experience of other countries where democracies are being converted into dictatorships.

Secondly, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has once again demonstrated the ineffectiveness of the UN in preventing war and resolving conflicts. The Veto power to the five nations has proved to be the greatest weakness of the UN. The UN needs restructuring and making it mandatory for all members to fall in line with its decisions.

Thirdly, nations and the world in general today lack enlightened leaders, leaders with broad and inclusive vision and integrity. Leaders in many countries have become narrow-minded and power-hungry without character. A large number of leaders are guided by self aggrandizement and hatred towards other ethnic or religious groups. Training leaders with broad and inclusive vision and character along with competence has to be a top priority of education. Without character competence can become disastrous.

Fourthly, religiosity and religious fundamentalism have to give way to spirituality based on the practice of the core principles and values taught by different faiths. The values like forgiveness, compassion, justice, and dignity of human beings are universal. Drifting away from the core moral and humane values taught by religions is the main reason for leaders and people becoming insensitive, inhuman and unjust.  Any war is an attack on humanity and therefore unjust. The argument of “just war” is nothing but hypocrisy. 
If the political leaders are visionaries with honesty and integrity, they will choose non-violent means like dialogue or mediation for resolving conflicts because they are convinced that in a war nobody wins, but all are losers to different degrees.