Following the resounding defeat of Congress in Haryana, the landslide victory of the BJP-led Mahayuti in Maharashtra plunged the INDIA alliance into an existential crisis. The defeat was nothing short of a political tsunami for the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), leading to a humiliating rout for the Congress, Shiv Sena's Uddhav faction, and Sharad Pawar's NCP. The Congress, which contested 101 seats as part of the MVA, suffered its worst-ever performance, securing only 16 seats, while the BJP clinched 132 seats with an impressive strike rate of 90%. The Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction) and Sharad Pawar's NCP now appear electorally marginalised in Maharashtra's political landscape.

What stands out is the speed and intensity with which the BJP rebounded after its poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections in May, where it won only 9 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra. Within a short period, the BJP course-corrected and staged a remarkable comeback. This is a critical lesson for the Congress and other opposition parties. Despite successive crushing defeats in various states, the Congress has failed to undertake honest introspection, conduct objective analyses, or formulate a strategy to regain lost ground.

The BJP, supported by the Sangh Parivar, boasts a formidable election machinery. The RSS cadres and other Sangh affiliates played a pivotal role in securing BJP's victories in both Haryana and Maharashtra. The BJP successfully resolved its differences with the RSS, which actively campaigned for the party and its allies in Maharashtra. While the BJP's vote share in the Maharashtra assembly elections (26.8%) was only marginally higher than its 26.18% in the Lok Sabha polls, the strategic efforts of its election machinery, particularly the RSS, turned the tide in its favour, according to political analysts.

The assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra have again highlighted Congress's lack of grassroots workers and weak organisational structure. The most urgent takeaway for Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi is the need to rebuild the party's nearly defunct organisational framework. Years of neglect in strengthening grassroots structures have come at a steep price.

After the Lok Sabha elections, the INDIA alliance made no concerted effort to demonstrate unity or communicate a clear resolve to protect the Constitution, democracy, and fundamental rights. Instead, it gave the impression of being a marriage of convenience focused solely on winning elections. The Congress's failure to involve alliance partners in Haryana's election campaign and internal factionalism significantly contributed to its defeat in the state.

The BJP adopted a three-pronged strategy combining cash transfers, caste mobilisation, and communal polarisation. The Shinde government's promise to increase monthly cash transfers for 2.5 crore low-income women from ?1,500 to ?2,100, coupled with the immediate transfer of ?1,500 under the "Ladli Behna Yojna" post-Lok Sabha elections, was a masterstroke. Although the MVA pledged to raise the amount to ?3,000, voters perceived the BJP's promises as tangible and credible.

The BJP also deployed OBC leaders within its ranks to mobilise support and counter the Maratha vote base. According to Girish Kuber, BJP leaders conducted 330 meetings with various OBC factions, with RSS cadres working in full force to neutralise the caste census narrative of the MVA.

The communal plank was another significant element, with slogans like "batenge to katenge" (divide and be conquered) popularised by UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and echoed by BJP leaders. This strategy effectively overshadowed issues like falling crop prices, unemployment, and agrarian distress, which the opposition failed to highlight adequately.

The opposition's strategy of focusing on "saving the Constitution" resonated in the Lok Sabha elections but failed to translate into meaningful impact in state-level polls. The MVA lacked a coherent counter-strategy to the BJP's triad of cash, caste, and communalism. Its manifesto fell short of presenting substantive policies aimed at Dalits and OBCs to transform social justice into reality.

Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader Hemant Soren's strategy offers valuable lessons for the opposition. By emphasising welfare schemes such as the Maiya Samman Yojana (?1,000 per month for underprivileged women), power bill waivers for 40 lakh families, and universal pensions, he could win over a large number of people belonging to different communities.

He also projected himself as the guardian of tribal rights. The fact that the JMM could win 27 out of the 28 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes proves that tribals have reposed their faith in Hemant Soren as the guardian of their rights, especially the rights related to jal, jungle and zameen. The whole strategy seems to have resonated with the people of Jharkhand.

The election results prove that Hemant Soren could effectively thwart the Bangladeshi Muslim infiltration theory invented by the BJP leader, Himanta Biswa Sarma of Assam, and parroted by the BJP leaders. The communal polarisation and the dog whistles of the BJP included Bangladeshi infiltrators (Muslims) marrying tribal girls, taking away tribal lands, and reducing tribals to a minority in their land.

The most significant lesson for opposition parties is the need to present a united front to safeguard democracy, the Constitution, and their own existence. A loosely knit alliance formed merely for elections cannot withstand the BJP's potent mix of Hindutva and populist welfarism.

Alliances should be based on shared ideologies, with a joint manifesto supplemented by individual party agendas. Voters tend to reject alliances seen as opportunistic, as evidenced by the rout of ideologically disparate partners like Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) and Congress. The coalition must prioritise secularism, a principle recently upheld by the Supreme Court as integral to the Indian Constitution.

On Monday, November 25, the SC dismissed petitions challenging the constitutional validity of the 42nd amendment, in which the words' secular' and 'socialist' were added to the Preamble of the Constitution during the Emergency in 1976. "These terms have achieved widespread acceptance, with their meanings understood by 'We, the people of India' without any semblance of doubt," the Supreme Court said.

The opposition must focus on creating employment, quality education, and affordable healthcare instead of relying on unsustainable freebies that harm the country's financial health.

Regional parties must learn from the fate of the undivided Shiv Sena and the NCP, both weakened by splits induced by BJP tactics. The split was preceded by raids on the leaders of both parties by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and filing cases against them. After the latest assembly election, the very existence of the NCP of Pawar and Shiv Sena of

Uddhav Thackeray is in question.

With 132 out of 288 seats in its kitty, the BJP needs only 13 seats more to form the government. Hence, neither the Shinde faction of Shiv Seana, with 57 seats, nor the NCP of Ajit Pawar, with 41 seats, will be able to do any hard bargaining with the BJP. The BJP, for the time being, may tactfully maintain cordial relations with these two regional parties. Still, in the long run, they will be weakened as the BJP expands its footprint all over Maharashtra.

Parties like the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which are distancing themselves from the INDIA alliance, risk a similar fate if they fail to align with broader opposition strategies.

Finally, with its pan-Indian presence, the Congress has a pivotal role in countering the BJP's entrenched majoritarianism. This requires fostering alliances with secular parties and rebuilding its organisational base, especially in states where it directly contests the BJP.