Uttar Pradesh is the most populous State with a fertility rate of 2.7 which is worse than the national average of 2.1. The State’s performance is also at the rock bottom in health sector, school performance index, Human Development Index, and many more areas. Interestingly, the BJP government under Yogi Adityanath does not feel the urgency to act in any sector other than population growth. The alacrity with which the State Law Commission has released the draft Population Control Bill, a few months before the Assembly elections, seems to be a case of vote bank politics with a hidden agenda.  

The draconian and Tughlaqian Bill intends to penalize couples with more than two children: bar them from contesting local body elections; restrict their ration cards to four units; no eligibility for applying for government jobs and so on. On the other hand, those sticking to the norms will be bestowed with numerous incentives like additional increments in government service; subsidized purchase of plot or house; rebate on utility charges; free health care facilities and insurance coverage for the single child until they reach 20 years; preference for single child in admission in all educational institutions. And the list goes on.

The devil is hiding between the lines. Apart from the objective of bringing down fertility levels, the Bill aims “to ensure there is a population balance among various communities.” Herein lies the catch. It does not identify any community that creates imbalance, but it is as clear as crystal. It is revealing to have a look at the data on population growth. The decadal growth rate of the Muslim population was at a 20-year low in 2011. It fell to 24.6% from 32.8% in 1991, a decline parallel to that of Hindus, which went from 22.7% in 1991 to 16.7% in 2011. The next census will, in all probability, bring more clarity on this issue.  

The dangers involved in the UP move are more than meet the eyes. Experts point out that fertility rate is higher among Scheduled Tribes, Dalits, Muslims and OBCs in that order. If the Bill becomes law, these sections, which are among the poorest in the country, will be out of many welfare schemes, leaving them poorer. It is proven that fertility among the poor is high compared to others. Hence, the cure will turn out to be worse than the disease. Moreover, if one state government after another comes out with such laws, how will welfare schemes introduced by Parliament percolate down to the target groups? Can State governments stop people from availing those benefits? 

The UP move reminds one of the infamous programme of compulsory vasectomy resorted to by Sanjay Gandhi during the Emergency for which his party had to pay a big price. Though the present Bill is apparently targeted against a particular community, it is going to create ripples in all communities. People in general, including the majority community, have an emotional preference for boys. If the Bill becomes a law, there could be more pressure on women to go for sex determination tests and abort female fetuses. With many more BJP-ruled States like Assam, Gujarat and party MPs joining the chorus to bulldoze away with this sweeping decision, the many dangers involved in the carrot and stick policy could lead to unrest among communities.