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Four Trillion Dollar Economy More Mirage than Triumph

Jaswant Kaur Jaswant Kaur
02 Jun 2025

Last Sunday, when the news broke that India had crossed the $4 trillion GDP mark, one could feel a sense of victory and jubilation. The news anchors went gaga over the numbers. Their passion was quite evident in their voices, which surpassed their normal pitch. The political circles, too, did not remain untouched. Hashtags like #IndiaShining and #4Trillion began trending on social media, accompanied by celebratory graphics.

And the cynic in this writer questioned, as always: What does it mean for the young migrant worker whom I met on a train last month, who was returning to his village, utterly disappointed and jobless? Or for the elderly woman in my neighbourhood who runs a roadside paan stall, earning barely a hundred bucks a day? How is this growth impacting their lives? Or is it even creating any traction?

Often, the size of an economy, as impressive as it may sound, hides what really matters: how that wealth is shared, who gets to participate in it, and whether it translates into dignity and opportunity for the majority. Or is it an opportunity only for a few?

Crossing the $4 trillion mark in nominal GDP is no small feat. In geopolitical terms, it signals that India is a market that cannot be ignored, a voice that matters in global economic forums, and a serious player in shaping the future of trade, technology, and finance. For sure, we are emerging as a promising economy.

For one thing, the statement made by the NITI Aayog CEO that India has crossed a $4 trillion economy is not correct if one looks at the IMF report in question. The World Economic Outlook report states that India is set to become the 4th largest economy in 2025, i.e., FY 2025–26. At the time of writing, GDP figures for the last quarter of FY 2024–25 have not been released. In the absence of data, how can it be claimed that India has surpassed Japan to become the 4th largest economy in the world?

In fact, this discrepancy has been rectified by none other than NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani. Be that as it may, we are certainly aiming for a $5 trillion economy. But what exactly would it look like for an average Indian?

The aggregate number is certainly big. However, our per capita income, which gives more accurate information on individual well-being in the country, is only pegged at around $2,880. That puts us far behind many neighbouring countries, including those with which we are now competing in total GDP.

China, for instance, has a per capita income of $13,306. Even smaller economies have higher per capita figures than India. For instance, Sri Lanka has a per capita income of $3,833. Even Bangladesh, which has recently been running into an economic and political crisis, has a per capita income close to that of India. In terms of what the average citizen earns, consumes, or saves, India is still catching up.

In other words, we might have achieved big numbers in terms of GDP, but the overall impact is thinly spread over 1.4 billion people. Besides, a lot of buzz has been created about how India may soon overtake Japan to become the world's third-largest economy. If one looks at Japan's economy, it has largely been stagnant for over a decade. There has been a decline in its population as people are ageing fast. Growth is sluggish. If India's economy is growing while that of Japan is flat, overtaking it becomes inevitable, not extraordinary.

But let's not forget that Japan's per capita income is $33,900, which is nearly 12 times more than ours. Its social safety nets are robust. Public transport is world-class. Healthcare is universal and affordable. Even in economic stagnation, most Japanese enjoy a standard of living that remains a distant dream for millions of Indians.

We might be able to surpass Japan in total economic size, but in terms of quality of life, access to public services, or institutional reliability, we are far behind. Also, it is easy to take pride in looking at the size of the economy and relate it to success. We should not forget that GDP is derived by aggregating everything, including billionaires who certainly have access to larger resources and, hence, more spending power.

If the richest one percent of Indians own over forty percent of the country's wealth, and nearly 800 million people continue to survive on less than Rs. 1 lakh a year, we certainly need to introspect and define our indicators for success.

One of the major reasons why our growth has not translated into mass upliftment is because sectors that are driving GDP have not given employment to the masses. For example, IT, finance, e-commerce, and large corporations have been major contributors to our growth. However, these sectors do not create jobs at scale.

Manufacturing, once seen as the path to mass employment, has not delivered on its promise. Agriculture continues to employ nearly 50 percent of our workforce but contributes only about 18 percent to GDP. The informal sector, which employs the majority, remains precarious and under-protected. Our wages have remained stagnant for years. In short, our economy is growing, but it is not transforming the lives of the masses at scale.

It won't be wrong to say that in another couple of years, we might also achieve a $5 trillion economy. However, it is important to ask: whose growth are we actually aiming at? Do we want to be a country where a handful thrive while a large majority remain in survival mode? Or a nation where growth is broad-based, inclusive, and equitable?

If we really wish to achieve a Viksit Bharat 2047, we certainly have to relook at our policies and strategies. Instead of chasing GDP, we need to set our house straight by improving employability, increasing employment opportunities, and household incomes in real terms. A high-growth, low-job economy is not sustainable. We need to support MSMEs, foster labour-intensive industries, and create pathways for youth into the workforce.

Our taxation policies need to be progressive to promote well-targeted social protection to reduce the vast gap between people at the top and those lying at the bottom of the pyramid.

We have taken just over a decade to move from a $2 trillion to nearly $4 trillion economy. It is certainly a remarkable achievement. But now we need to look at the holistic growth of each and every household in this country, which shall define the real growth of our country. GDP growth does not matter to the 800 million Indians who still struggle for basic nutrition, housing, education, and healthcare. Let us aim at their growth, and our dream of achieving a Viksit Bharat may come true even before 2047.

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